The Impact Of The Gloomier Global Outlook On Latin America
By iMFdirect:
By Nicolás Eyzaguirre
The IMF has sharply marked down its forecast for world growth and it now expects a mild recession in the euro area. Naturally, weaker world growth will affect economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Concretely, the Fund expects the world economy to grow by just 3¼ percent in 2012, ¾ percentage points lower than our September forecasts.
In contrast, our forecast for the U.S. economy for 2012 is unchanged, as incoming data signal a stronger—but still sluggish—domestic recovery that will offset a weaker global environment. Commodity prices will be affected by ebbing global demand, with oil projected to fall about 5 percent and non-oil commodities about 14 percent.
Softer growth
As for Latin America and the Caribbean, as I foreshadowed in my recent blog post, a weaker world economy and softer commodity prices translate into a gloomier outlook (see table above). We’ve marked down our
